When decisions needed „Puppetparliament“is bystander

This post was first published in TH!NK ABOUT IT site 25th February 2009.

Parliament is a venerable name of democratic institution, one could even suppose that its members are doing some worthy job and decisions there. However a couple of examples from last week again showed where the real power is.

The meeting in the German capital on Sunday, Feb. 22, was designed to forge a common EU response to the global financial crisis ahead of a G20 summit in London on April 2. The talks, called by Germany’s Chancellor Angela Merkel, were attended by the leaders of France, Britain, Spain, Italy, the Netherlands, Luxembourg and the Czech Republic, the holder of the rotating EU presidency.

The core

When it’s a question about issue with great importance EU’s inner core is ready to make decisions – the rest of member-states can only follow. According Sweden’s Carl Bildt “six to eight” EU countries had complained about being left out of the decision-making loop. “I must admit I’m extremely worried about the EU’s institutional chaos,” Finnish Foreign Minister Alexander Stubb said on Monday after regular talks in Brussels with his EU counterparts. “Never in the EU’s history has there been a period like this with so many cliques.”

The 2nd circle

If the inner circle decided about response to the financial crisis the second circle – EU’s 27 FMs – was also working with significant topic. On 28 January, the European Commission proposed to reallocate five billion euro of unspent EU money, mostly to support clean coal projects, offshore wind farms and the deployment of broadband Internet connections in rural areas. However the blocks foreign ministers failed to agree on this European Commission proposal. The reason was unequal distribution of projects. Probably new deal will be made with more equal base and forgetting the common needs and quality planning of projects.

The levels

Forgetting EU’s organogram as illusion and speaking reality one can easily find different decision making practices in EU depending about importance of issue. Most important core group is cooperation between France and Germany sometimes adding UK to group. Feb. 22 meeting was example about ad hock planning body while FMs meeting Feb 23 represents the regular decision making.

Commission of course has great de facto power not only on implementation level but also designing proposals handled in EUs inner cores; the same can be said about bureaucrats in national ministries who are designing policies decided EU meetings at summit/ministry levels.

There is amazing similarity in decision making between EU and ex-Soviet Union. USSR had also some “democratic” institutions like parliament and government, but the real power was in party machine and its “politburo”.

EP?

So where is this leaving European Parliament? It may handle some energy bulb level issues but honestly the whole institution seems to be unnecessary creation only to keep some democratic illusion on show. As EU citizens are not so stupid to keep his institution more than a puppet theatre they show their attitude by low turnout percentage.

EP is practical place to locate some second class politicians for retirement or out to not make any mess in national policy. They also can show good places to get fresh mussels while voters are visiting in EP as their quests. Designing EU policy happens anyway somewhere else.

More my views in my Archives:Blog!

Use of Depleted Uranium proved in NATO Bombings

This post was first published in TH!NK ABOUT IT site 21st February 2009.

An Italian non-governmental organisation – the Rome-based “Un ponte per …” – is investigating consequences of NATO’s 1999 bombings of Serbia and the effects of the use of depleted uranium (DU) on the civilian population. The NATO allegedly used shells with depleted uranium which are still today causing an increase in the number of cancer patients. NATO has admitted the use of DU in the bombing campaign and Italian media has reported that 45 Italian soldiers who served in the international forces in Kosovo (KFOR) died after the bombing and 515 became ill with cancer.  In Serbia and its separatist province Kosovo the number of civilian victims is still unexplored but most likely the figures are manifold compared to those of soldiers.

This topic was discussed years ago when e.g. I was working in Kosovo, however any proof and warnings then did not came to my hands.  Later more information was available and on 24^th Nov. 2008 I wrote an article “Depleted Uranium from NATO bombs killing people in Balkans” referring information I got from Croatian news portal Javno.

And DU is…?

To get picture above larger go to link .

The recent military use of DU

Over the 78 days of NATO bombing, a total of 31,000 shells with depleted uranium, weapons banned by international treaties, were dropped in at least 112 locations in Serbia and especially Kosovo region.  Earlier in Bosnia-Herzegovina around 10,000 rounds were fired in operations around Sarajevo in the latter stages of allied operations in Bosnia.  More than 100,000 DU shells were fired during the Gulf war 1991.

A map of places where DU has been used either in combat or by accident below:

Un Ponte per…

Un Ponte per… (UPP) is a volunteer association established in 1991 just after the end of the bombings on Iraq. Its aim was to promote humanitarian aid to the Iraqi population.  When the war in the Balkans escalated, the association created new campaign and started various projects aimed at sending medicines and health supplies to the Yugoslav Federation and helping refugees from Kosovo.  UPP’s institutional partners include ECHO, UNHCR, UNICEF, UNESCO,UNOPS,UNHOCI ,UNRWA, Italian Municipalities and Regions and Provinces, and more info about their activities can be found from their web-site .

New investigation in Serbia/Kosovo

Now the ‘Un ponte per…’ NGO investigator Alessandro di Meo told Adnkronos International (AKI) that the international community was turning a deaf ear to the problem, because the use of depleted uranium is prohibited by international conventions. “But ten years after the bombing, the world has the right to know what really happened and what the consequences are,” he said. Samantha Menngarelli – also investigator of “Un ponte per…” – said the truth about military casualties was slowly sinking in in Italy after a surprising increase in deaths and cancers amongst soldiers who served in KFOR. “But the civilian victims have been completely ignored and we want to shed light on this problem,“ she said. (Source: Andkronos International )

The ‘Un ponte per…’ investigators will tour several Serbian cities that were hardest hit during the bombings before submitting a report to the Rome-based NGO.

Same time a Serbian NGO, ironically called ‘Merciful angel’ the name of NATO’s 1999 airstrikes, recently reported that cancer ailments have jumped about 200 percent in some parts of Kosovo and areas of Serbia that were most heavily bombed.  Earlier Javno news portal reported that in Kosovo’s Kosovska Mitrovica in 2005 there were 38 percent more cancer patients than in 2004. In those two years, a total of 3,500 cancer cases in Kosovo Albanians were diagnosed.  Elsewhere since 2001, medical personnel at the Basra hospital (Iraq) claimed that they observed a sharp increase in the incidence of child leukemia and genetic malformation among babies born in the decade following the Gulf War.  (More e.g. in Croatian news portal “Javno” 17.11.2008)

Contradictory topic

The British and US governments have long denied that DU ammunition is harmful.  The British Gulf Veterans and Families Association have for years called for systematic testing. It claims that “hundreds” of Gulf warriors have died of cancers and other illnesses contracted during active service.  Also WHO is quite cautious about health risks of DU (More in WHO factsheets ).

There is huge contradiction between official position of DU users and findings on the ground. The situation is a bit similar like position of tobacco industry compared the one of smokers – many have been died but direct evidence of causality is missing.

There is a developing scientific debate and concern expressed regarding the impact of the use of DU projectiles and it is possible that, in future, there will be a consensus view in international legal circles that use of such projectiles violate general principles of the law applicable to use of weapons in armed conflict. No such consensus exists at present.  In United Nations in December 2008, 141 states supported a resolution requesting that three UN agencies: United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), WHO and IAEA update their research on the impact of uranium munitions by late 2010.

From the other side there is also growing movement to ban DU military use. International Coalition to Ban Uranium Weapons (ICBUW) – is now comprising over 102 member organisations in 27 countries. From their web-site one can check latest developments.

If the causality between DU military use and morbidity will came clear one could speak war crime and demand some responsibility from those who have decided to them.  This could also be one connecting factor in Balkans because DU maybe is killing people – civilians and soldiers – there regardless of their ethnicity, religion and country as well foreigners in mission.

Kosovo as private property

Kosovo Albanians celebrated Feb. 17th  their first year of sc. Independence.  Among normal praising statements and congratulations there was also various definitions of the status of this Serbia’s separatist province.  Newest for me was one of which  the former PM Ramush Haradinaj used.  He addressed many criticisms toward the Government – a quote (Koha Ditore, Zëri, Epoka e Re):

We are witnesses of the transformation of the state into the private property of the leadership that wants to monopolize everything good that we inherited, our entire history and future, and which has transformed Government into organized corruption.

Rude words but given the background also understandable.  Today’s PM Thaci and Haradinaj are representing two leading and competing tribes or clans of organized crime in Kosovo.  Both have been accused also e.g. about war crimes, Haradinaj even was in Haague but released when witnesses surprisingly were murdered or threaded to keep their mouth shut.

State as private property is quite good description  about how matters stand.  I have earlier described circumstances in Kosovo with  “Quadruple Helix Model” where government, underworld, Wahhabbi schools and international terrorism have win-win symbiosis.  First I was thinking that Kosovo is sliding to be a “failed state” now I am tending to the opinion that a “captured state” is better definition – maybe Kosovo’s ex-PM is concluding the same.

Other definitions were also heard during “celebrations – here few of them:

• One Kosovo Albanian political leader, Mr. Demaci, said that his dream for independence was different and he kept stutus of Kosovo as “half independent” (Epoka e Re and Kosova Sot)
• Serbian PM Mirko Cvetkovic described Kosovo as “a virtual state on the Serbian territory” (RTS)
• The Assembly of (Serbian) Municipalities of in Kosovo adopted a declaration and “dismisses as non-existent and legally invalid any act and activity declaring the independence of the quasi-state of Kosovo and forming the institution thereof”. (RTS)

From the other side celebrations went without incidents so as positive point one could conclude that conflict has rised on the level of words which is real progress compared region’s past.

Kosovo March/February 17th: Pogrom with Prize

It is nearly five years since the outburst of ethnic Albanian violence in Kosovo on March 17, 2004, when 19 people killed and 954 wounded and when 35 Orthodox holy sites were ruined in two days. This pogrom got its prize a year ago on February 17^th when Kosovo Albanians unilaterally – but orchestrated by western powers – declared independence of this province.  The events showed way to all separatist movements on the globe that violence is accepted method to attain political goal.  They also uncovered the EU’s nonexistent skills with crisis management and designing anything else than already dead road maps for conflict resolution.

Those two dates are well remembered in all ethnic groups in Serbia and its separatist province, although from different perspectives. Also international community, especially EU should remember them as they have lost their perspective in West Balkans long time ago.

March 17^th 2004  

Almost 4,000 Serbs were expelled from their homes, six town and nine villages were ethnically cleansed, 935 houses belonging to Serbs and 10 public institutions (schools, health centres, post offices…) were ruined or torched in addition to 35 Orthodox churches (total 150 since bombings 1999) . March 17^th violence was sequel to the ethnic Albanian terror and war in Kosovo as a result more than 200.000 refugees or better say internally displaced persons (IDPs) from province.

March 17^th showed the total failure of international community in Kosovo. Fabricated, biased or optimistic reports were singing the praises of conflict management and progress, intelligence – lacking touch with local community – didn’t know anything about planned terror. The response of peacekeepers and police was also delayed. The commanders were unreachable, drunk or had hangover due the St. Patrick’s Day celebrations after buckets of Irish whiskey and Guinness.

March 17^th finalized IDP problem

After 72 days illegal bombing campaign 1999 international community started wide housing program for refugees and IDPs and with Albanians it was a success while Kosovo accommodated nearly half million more Albanians than before bombing (don’t ask from where those extras came).  Serbs instead were afraid to move back – like it was situation also with refugees from Croatia – so today Serbia is suffering one of the biggest (326,853 refugees and IDPs) refugee/IDP problems in the whole Europe (More in my article “Refugees and IDPs in Western Balkans” )

According to statistics from the UNHCR there are about 206,000 IDPs from Kosovo living in Serbia. This fact has mostly ignored in western mainstream media. Their attitude is understandable since this media from the very beginning had fixed their one-sided picture about good and bad guys so Serbs somehow deserved their fate. The outcome is that Serb Refugees and IDPs from Kosovo are one of the forgotten and forsaken victim groups in the former Yugoslavia.

After pogrom 2004 new housing program was planned but it is questionable if more people from non-Albanian ethnic groups moved in or out because lack of security. March 17^th guaranteed that Serbs are not considering to come back to their earlier homes and those who still live in enclave ghettos are planning to move anytime.

Dream of “European” standards and forgetting them

After reverse ethnic cleansing during Summer 1999 UN started to administer its protectorate. Autumn 2002 UN started to plan and later launched a “standards before status” –policy, 8 milestones to achieve before starting status talks. The first independent review about these “European” standards came public October 2005 in Karl Eide’s report to UN .  Latest then it was clear that Kosovo will not reach European standards in foreseeable future. However growing frustration among Kosovo Albanians made international community to fear that March 17^th pogrom could repeat again so status talks started regardless of standards.

On the behalf of UN Martti Ahtisaari – unofficial lackey of U.S.State Department and Nato – held ten rounds of pseudo talks with Pristina and Belgrade during 2006.  Ahtisaari published his biased report which soon found itself in garbage bin and UN started new negotiation round. This time facilitators were better balanced in sc. Troika including representatives of U.S., Russia and EU. This time real alternatives for future status were on table such as Åland and Hong Kong models, partition, confederation, new autonomy model.  Albanian side did not see necessary to negotiate anything because U.S. had already promised independence for them so also this round lead to stalemate. (More about negotiation events here)

February 17^th 2008

In December 2007 NATO and EU started to implement coordinated declaration of Kosovo’s independence. Its elements were e.g. following:

• the US and the EU would take leading roles in “coordinating and managing” Kosovo’s process towards independence
• a “creative interpretation” of UN SC Resolution 1244 would allow for NATO to stay in Kosovo “no matter its status” and for the EU to send its ESDP mission without Security Council authorization
• Pristina would be asked to “coordinate” their moves and not proclaim unilateral independence without prior signals from Washington and Brussels
• Serbia would be sent a “sweetener” in the form of a promise of accelerated candidate status in exchange for “constructive disagreement”.

The EU would build a “unified” position by creating a framework which would allow for Kosovo’s independence, but decisions on recognition would be subject to national decisions, procedures and frameworks, meaning that EU members would not be obliged to recognize it.

This scenario was implemented and February 17^th 2008 Kosovo declared its independence regardless international law and UN.  The first recognitions came from Afghanistan,  U.S. and other its lackeys followed.

Everything didn’t go like planned in Washington and its Brussels allies.  Bribing of Serbs wasn’t successful;  Russia with other rising BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) countries had their say in UN, recognitions stopped.

When Albanian majority declared Independence Feb. 2008 the idea was to transfer international administration from UN to EU.  However the only internationally accepted UN Security Council resolution 1244 – which says that Kosovo is part of Serbia – stayed valid. So that about independence which in mistake has accepted through some 50 countries.

The UN General Assembly was backing Serbia’s draft to request an advisory opinion of the International Court of Justice (ICJ) about the legality of the unilaterally declared independence of Kosovo.  October 8th UNGA, by a recorded vote of 77 in favour to 6 against (Albania, Marshall Islands, Federated States of Micronesia, Nauru, Palau, United States), with 74 abstentions, adopted a resolution drafted by Serbia and now the case is in Haague.

Today the actual situation on the ground is big mess without any clear exit strategy.  EU is administrating in Kosovo under UN umbrella.  Albanian dominated southern part is continuing its life under EU supervision while Serb dominated northern part will formally continue to be an UN protectorate de facto integrated to Serbia.  However a wider framework is international law and UNSC resolution 1244 are valid before new resolution will replace the existing one.

International situation escalated immediately by Kosovo’s Unilateral Declaration of Independence – some 5.000 ethnic groups had waited this signal that with violence one can achieve political goals despite international law.  Kosovo was already good excuse for separatist movements during last Summer and Autumn in Caucasia and South America.

From frozen conflict to frozen independence

After agreement with Serbia EU’s rule of law mission (EULEX) finally started end of 2008 after half an year delay.  This filling of power vacuum came in right moment before Kosovo would slide to next “failed or captured state”.  Probably also local population in Kosovo has noticed during short independence experiment that for state more is needed than only flag and anthem.

In an interesting interview of John Bolton in Interfax  , former US Undersecretary of State and Ambassador to the United Nations made e.g. following remarks:

• US recognition of severed Kosovo province was a serious mistake, leading to an escalation of tensions, instead of calming down the situation in the Balkans.
• “support to the independence of Kosovo is an atavism that might have made sense 15 years ago, but makes no sense today.”
• “consensus boils down to the fact that nobody knows where Kosovo is”

Normally I have doubts with thoughts of U.S. neocons but this time Mr. Bolton hit the nail on the head – I can only agree.

Conclusions

It’s easy to blame the today’s situation in Kosovo on U.S foreign policy.  After implementing its failed attempt to please Muslim countries, after increasing the profits of its military-industry-complex and after creating one of its biggest military complex in Europe U.S. is covering its track record and leaving the whole mess to its lapdogs in EU. As a result of EU’s short-sighted post-conflict management policy they must again throw away few billions of EU taxpayer money to keep flag in international protectorate and safe haven of drug cartels – in artificial unsustainable creature with no realistic visions nor exit strategy.

March 17^th 2004 in Kosovo is an example for international community general and for EU missions especial about fatal failure of crisis management when they are short of right situation analysis, when practice is contrary to their ideals and when interests of local stakeholders and internationals differ. The outcome of EU’s nearly nine years efforts for capacity building to create economically sustainable multiethnic society with democratic values could be joke – unfortunately this never-ending story continued February 17^th 2008 and is still continuing to unforeseeable future and it is not fiction.

More over Kosovo case in my +30 articles here!

US Intelligence: Balkans pose the Greatest Thread of Instability in Europe

This post was first published in TH!NK ABOUT IT site 12th February 2009.

AFP/Washington reports Feb.13th 2009 that The Balkans pose the greatest threat of instability in Europe in 2009, according to an annual threat assessment presented Thursday by U.S. intelligence director Dennis Blair. The report said the principal challenge will come from the unresolved political status of the Serb minority in Kosovo, and the uneasy interethnic power-sharing arrangements in Bosnia-Herzegovina.

The report concludes following:

“Events in the Balkans will again pose the greatest threat of instability in Europe in 2009, despite positive developments in the last year that included Kosovo’s peaceful declaration of independence from Serbia, the election of pro-E.U. leaders in Serbia, and offers of NATO membership to Croatia and Albania.”

“Belgrade openly supports parallel Kosov Serb institutions. It has used political and legal means to challenge and undermine Pristina’s sovereignty and to limit the mandate of the E.U.’s Rule of Law mission (EULEX) in Kosovo…This has reinforced the de-facto separation of Kosovo into an Albanian-majority south and a Serb-majority north and frustrated the Kosovo Albanians,” the report said.

As for Bosnia, the report said its future as a multiethnic state “remains in doubt, although neither widespread violence nor a formal split is imminent. Threats of secession by Bosnian Serb leaders and calls by some Bosniak leaders to eliminate the Bosnian Serb entity have increased interethnic tensions to perhaps the highest level in years,” report notes.

The report is similar with my own observations. However I disagree with conclusion that the principal challenge will come from the unresolved political status of the Serb minority in Kosovo. From my point of view the core problem is that Kosovo conflict is frozen with forced implementation of one-sided temporary solution designed mostly in Washington and not negotiated between local stakeholders. During sc. Kosovo talks – leaded by Mr. Ahtisaari – the Albanian side did not had any reason to talk alternatives while US had already supported their independence; the same positions were later in sc. Troika (USA,Russia, EU) talks.

United Nations send Kosovo case to International Court of Justice and its decision is coming maybe 2010. I hope that real Talks between Belgrade and Pristina are starting latest then.

About Bosnia-Herzegovina I agree with US intelligence report. My estimation about situation is even more negative because the dispute is not anymore between the two entities – the Serb Republic and Muslim-Croat Federation. Last year alarming reports started to come about rise of radical Islam in Bosnia-Herzegovina (more e.g. in my article “Islamic terror …”) and how Croatians in Bosnia felt that hey are victims of Bosnian Muslim terror. Also arms trafficking in Bosnia changed more alarming not because their selling in EU but because their planned use in Europe by radicals (more e.g. in my article “Radical Islamists arming their selves in Balkans“).

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World Bank destroyed Albanian village in joint operation with corrupted Government – a typical crime story from Balkans

This post was first published in TH!NK ABOUT IT site 12th February 2009.

The internal report shows that a project of World Bank in southern Albania led to the destruction and destitution of a powerless village Jale in 2007. The report, obtained last week by Balkan Insight , a publication run by investigative journalists in southeast Europe, also noted allegations of corruption and efforts at a cover up. The Bank has already announced the suspension of a loan for the project. World bank, the world’s largest and most influential anti-poverty institution and part of the U.N. system, is doling out $100 billion over the next three years for development projects. (Source BalkanInsight) As the case from my viewpoint is not unique exception it is maybe worth to analyze it a bit more.

The investigation by an inspection panel found that World Bank management failed to comply with its policies with respect to the design, appraisal and implementation of the project, harming the local people affected by it. The probe also found that WB assisted the demolition by pressuring local construction police to take action and by supplying them with equipment and aerial photos.

In addition to the project’s failure to comply with World Bank policies,  the investigators noted allegations of corruption and complaints that the demolition of the Jale settlements was part of a bigger scheme to develop the area as a tourist resort.

The project

In 2005 $18 million in WP financing was provided for a vaguely-worded $39 million “coastal zone management” project that would clean up the area’s shoreline, “strengthen governance” of the zone, “enhance cultural resources,” and “encourage community support for sustainable coastal zone management.”

The World Bank only agreed to the financing after its board of directors in Washington was first assured that the Albanian government, headed by socialist Prime Minister Sali Berisha, had reached an agreement on a “moratorium” on demolitions of the houses of the Jale residents.

That assurance came in the form of a critical sentence in what is known as a “project appraisal document” (or PAD). But the statement was false. No such deal had been struck.

On April 3, 2007, the villagers were notified that their houses would be demolished. They were given five days to appeal to a local court, which they did, but the construction police did not wait for the hearing. According to the investigators, many of the dispossessed were told they should be happy, as the World Bank would soon be giving them better homes and lifestyles.

Since the World Bank board had been wrongly assured that there would be no demolitions without a formal agreement, there were, of course, no World Bank-financed homes on the horizon. (Moreover, the panel report notes, the bank has done nothing since the demolitions to assist the victims in any way.)

The bulldozing caused an immediate furore in the Albanian media and parliament if not in Washington with one politician after another arguing they were illegal under Albanian law.(As source I have used FOX News).

Political connection/corruption

While never mentioned by name in any of the reports or memos, the Albanian responsible for coordinating the World Bank-financed project was Jamarber Malltezi, an official with the country’s Ministry of Public Works and the son-in-law of prime minister Berisha.

In March 2007, just weeks before Jale was demolished, Malltezi sent a letter to the head of the country’s “construction police” on the official letterhead of the Bank-financed project, according to the panel’s report discussing potential demolitions, “the importance of sustainable development” and the need for the police to act “as fast as possible.” Attached to the letter were two CDs with aerial photography financed with World Bank funds indicating the houses to be destroyed.

In addition to the project’s failure to comply with World Bank policies,  the investigators noted allegations of corruption and complaints that the demolition of the Jale settlements was part of a bigger scheme to develop the area as a tourist resort.

World Bank Spent More Than a Year Covering Up Destruction of Albanian Village

The investigative panel also accused World Bank management of misrepresenting facts during the probe and hampering the investigation by withholding access to data, while it notes the unusual lack of recollection of facts and crucial events by staff. Investigators say that several WB staff members both in headquarters and on the field were “coached” to provide unusually consistent but factually incorrect or misleading information.

Managers at the World Bank provided false information to the agency’s board of directors about a project and then spent nearly two years trying to cover it up. But what is crystal clear are the attempts by bank officials to hide something. The panel’s report is filled with allegations of the bank obstructing investigators in their year-long probe in language highly unusual for a bureaucratic document. (Reference FOX News)

The Albanian Response: World Bank influenced by the Albanian mafia

On 9th February 2009 Albanian Prime Minister Sali Berisha accused a World Bank investigative panel of being influenced by the Albanian mafia for their report on a controversial coastal management project that was used to demolish parts of a village and leave many families homeless.

“I express my contempt for the unscrupulous slander of the investigative panel in what they call an independent report, but which has been dictated by the Albanian land mafia,” said Berisha in a press conference on Sunday, adding that he had asked World Bank officials to probe the panel’s ties to organized crime. (Source BalkanInsight)

Simultaneously in London’s FT

In a column in London’s Financial Times on 25 January 2009, WB president Robert Zoellick called for an “Age of Responsibility” that would include developed countries giving nearly 1 percent of their economic stimulus packages to the world’s poor.

“The World Bank could manage the distribution of the cash with the United Nations and the regional development banks,” he wrote. “We could use existing mechanisms to deliver the funds fast and flexibly, backed by monitoring and safeguards so the money is well spent.”

And the World Bank’s board? It will meet February 17 to discuss the panel’s report and management’s official response to it.

How about EU?

World Bank is only one donor in Balkans the big one is European Union and it also has its share of problems . Couple of months ago I wrote an article “Squandering Kosovo’s Aid Funds” referring information made in public in German daily Die Welt on 18 December 2008. The core message was that a big part of EU Aid for reconstruction projects of Kosovo has been wasted due criminal activities, corruption, frauds and mismanagement. As base of the claim were the investigations conducted by the EU Anti Fraud Office (OLAF), UN investigators and the Italian Financial Police. More than 50 cases of financial embezzlement was found – most of them in energy sector. In twelve of these cases there is proof of criminal liability.

While most of the 2.3 billion Euros invested in the reconstruction of Kosovo since 1999, after the NATO bombing of Serbia, has disappeared without a trace and when it is expected that by 2011 the EU will throw Kosovo another one billion euro it could be clever to spare a minute for quality-planning and future management.

Lessons learned

Unfortunately I do not believe that the case I have described is unique in Balkans or universally with development projects by big donors. From project management point of view I like to highlight following aspects:

• At planning stage the correct information from the field should be provided, not only high level marketing reports
• The Aim(s) and output should be clearly defined and understood by both donor and beneficiar
• The final project plan should include realistic Logical Framework Approach (LogFrame)
• At implementation stage the events on the ground and the progress reports should be compared to verification measures in LogFrame
• The feedback from the event on the ground level and about inappropriate connections on the management level should be used to make necessary correction to original plan
• If the aims of original plan look unreachable or the methods with implementation are incorrect the financier should have courage to stop project when it is still ongoing without waiting yearlong investigations to be ready
• Internal investigations should be supported not prevented by donor management.

The biggest mismanagement or misuse of Aid money is not according my opinion local criminal activities. The strategic error has made in international level by not knowing the demands on the ground, not adjusting ideas and plans according local needs or the moment of Aid delivery, using indefinite mixture of emergency relief and long term planning, lack of simple and unambiguous development strategy and strategic leadership.

The strategic error is to use Aid funds only in a right way, not to right purposes. The fatal crime will be if international community does not correct earlier errors and practices at strategic level – only after that one can demand smoothly flowing project at local level.

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What’s up in West-Balkans 2009

This post was first published in TH!NK ABOUT IT site 9th February 2009.

A lot of interesting marches of progress will take or not take place in West Balkans during 2009. I try to keep my finger on the pulse of developments at least in Bosnia, Croatia and Serbia (including Kosovo) where the most interesting events will occur, I suppose. The today’s topics are mostly related to historical past of the region, its different approaches towards EU, its role as playground of international politics and its various domestic tensions. Here I shortly describe few of these issues and their background.

Bosnia-Herzegovina

Last year top level European politicians have awaken to reality concerning the state of Bosnia-Herzegovina, namely that this artificial creature made by Dayton agreement is starting to collapse. This in spite of hundreds of millions of euros which e.g. EU has thrown away to build some kind of multi-ethnical ideal.

Dayton Agreement was made 1995 after bloody war (1992-95) had almost finished ethnic cleansings/transfer of populations so that it was possible to draw administrative boundaries according ethnic groups. The agreement split Bosnia into two semi-independent entities – the Serb Republic and the Muslim-Croat Federation and three ethnic groups – Croats, Serbs and Bosniaks – are trying to lead state together and separately. Entities are united by weak central institutions, administration is quite heavy loaded with some 170 ministers and whole system is supervised by international presence.

On June 16^th 2008 Bosnia-Herzegovina made a significant step forward with EU by signing a key pre-membership deal called the Stabilisation and Association Agreement. The deal was a sign that progress can be achieved and crises overcome, when the political will exists. However, this consensus has since collapsed and reforms halted, nationalist rhetoric ahead of the October 2008 local elections was a factor in this deterioration. 5th November 2008 EU Commission published its “Progress report” about the road of western Balkan countries towards European integration/enlargement and was not very favorable to Bosnia-Herzegovina.

The recent past of Bosnia-Herzegovina is violent and there was not only one brutal side – there was three of them. This past has its impact today and real truth behind successful propaganda about events of war 1992-95 is still unclear. This year I expect that the trial of war crime suspect Radovan Karadzic will clarify a bit of this bloody past when both prosecutor and defense are making their case.

The developments last year showed that it is not anymore dispute between Serbs and Bosniaks, there was also serious dissension between Bosniaks and Croats which may be related to rise of radical Islam in Balkans. Lack of national identity and multi-ethnic ideals and dispute between ethnic groups are main reason for possible collapse of Bosnia-Herzegovina. Can any country survive without some minimal mutual self-identification across its citizens as a whole? If the shared non-ethnic Bosnian identity is taking steps backwards does this not mean that this artificial western desk-drawer plan is doomed to fail? I am afraid so but maybe it is loss only for those top level designers not for local population.

Croatia

Croatia is now badly lagging behind its northern Slovene neighbour due to massive political corruption. The official aim is to lead country into the European Union by 2011. Instead Croatia is transforming itself into a mafia state; ruling Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) have presided over a creeping authoritarian kleptocracy, bribery, kickbacks and cronyism are ubiquitous. Protesters took to the streets in December demanding early elections.

Government is also cracking down on the independent media. The regime controls state television and radio, suppressing dissent – especially, any investigations into high-level HDZ corruption – and also recently some journalists have been killed and physically assaulted.

One very alarming trend is (over)emphasizing Croatia’s Nazi past. During WWII Croatia was created and supported by Nazi Germany and Fascist Italy. It thus adopted their racial and political doctrines as well practices. Jasenovac was Croatia’s largest concentration and extermination camp. From total 600,000 murdered ones some 25,000 were Gypsies, some 25,000 Jews and over half a million Serbs. From time to time some symptoms of this past are occurring also today ad even with support of government (More e.g. in my article “Nazi’s funeral shadows Croatians past” )

Serbia

On Spring 2008 Serbia signed two strategic agreement. The one was a Stabilization and Association Agreement (SAA) with European Union and the second one was a preliminary energy deal with Russia. The first is since then suspended by Netherlands due the lack of arresting war crime fugitive Gen. Mladic but the second one got some flesh on the bones on Xmas-week when Serbia and Russia finalized the deal. Both deals are implementing Serbia’s European perspective although from different angels.

Serbia however started to implement SAA unilaterally, but the progress could have been better. According to the latest report from the European Integration Office adopted by the government, the ineffective work of the national parliament has meant that only a third of the laws in the European packet have been adopted, while the government has accomplished two-thirds of the necessary work.

Same time anti-European feeling is growing in Serbia and e.g. for the first time in a long time polls are showing that the number of those against cooperation with the Tribunal is on the rise again. While Serbia is not closing the door to the EU it is parallel with the idea of a European prospective searching a couple of other alternatives. Serbia’s FM Vuk Jeremić recently said that “At this point we have closer ties with Russia than with the U.S., since there is not a single open issue between us and Russia, while there is disagreement with Washington when it comes to the future status of Kosovo and Metohija.” (Source B 92 Feb. 8^th 2009)

The bloody past will again be on table during 2009 when genocides and ethnic cleansing during 1990s Balkan Wars is going on tables of international courtrooms. Croatia made lawsuit against Serbia and Serbia’s countersuit will be heard in Haague. (More in my article “Croatia’s and Serbia’s ‘Genocide’ Case to Proceed”)

Kosovo province

The UN General Assembly is backing Serbia’s draft to request an advisory opinion of the International Court of Justice (ICJ) about the legality of the unilaterally declared independence (Feb. 2009) of Kosovo. October 8th UNGA, by a recorded vote of 77 in favor to 6 against (Albania, Marshall Islands, Federated States of Micronesia, Nauru, Palau, United States), with 74 abstentions, adopted a resolution drafted by Serbia.

The Kosovo case is dividing international community – less than 60 countries have recognized Kosovo’s independence and 130 not – as well EU. EU started its huge rule & law mission late 2008 under UN umbrella. Besides UN/UNMIK and EU/EULEX there is also other players twisting arms who is leading the international protectorate. There is European Union High Representative who simultaneously leads International Community Office wondering his role, same time Nato-troops (KFOR) tries to keep ethnic tensions moderate, OSCE do not know its role nor length of its mission’s mandate in Kosovo, EU delegation office, few influential foreign liaison representatives and of course sc. Kosovo government based to local tribes.

It shows amazing creativity to establish this kind organizational nightmare in one tiny province and more amazing is that after nearly nine years of international administration and capacity building and squandered billions of Euros both the administration and the situation on the ground are beneath all criticism.

So in many levels Kosovo is some kind of test laboratory but its effect does not remain inside the borders of province. As hub of famous Balkan route Kosovo Albanian mafia is distributing majority of heroin sold in western and centre Europe and is now also testing cooperation with Columbian cartels to start distribution more cocaine as well. Earlier (Kosovo) Albanian mafia based its logistics to help of al-Qaida because the heroin is coming from Afghanistan.

The rest of W-Balkans

At present I do not have anything special in mind about special issues in rest of West Balkans. All countries have their more or less problems with organized crime, corruption and managing reflections of global financial crisis. One curiosity related to finances in West Balkans is that outside official euro-zone Montenegro and Kosovo province are already using Euro as their currency.

In Albania elections will be held in June 2009. At the end of November 2008 the Democratic Party (PD) and the Socialist Party (PS) agreed on amendments to the election law. In late 2008 Albanian parliament passed the law on lustration without the participation of the opposition, which was strongly condemned by the international community. Small parties have accused the Democratic Party and the Socialist Party of planning an election fraud Analysts have pointed to the possibility that the Democratic Party may prepare an election fraud at the forthcoming elections in Albania. At the last elections (2005) the election fraud planned by the Socialist Party was prevented. We shall see if and by who the next fraud is implemented.

Related to EU enlargement (FYR) Macedonia is trying to develop its modest performance. The name dispute with Greece will probably also be solved. In interior policy ethnic tensions between Albanians and Macedonians are bubbling under today’s stability and eruptions are possible.

Slovenia and Croatia have also small border dispute which solution should not create any problems. Slovenia will be the pioneer and enviable example for the rest of Balkans. One small detail to follow up in Slovenia is the claim if a Finnish arms factory Patria bribed previous Slovenian government to order their armed vehicles. It is ironical if the state-owned firm of Worlds most anti-corrupted state is bribing the top pupil of EU.

What ever – interesting year has again started in Balkans and what really happens will be seen.

This graph below shows the relations between the European nations in the Balkans before WWI;  now new great powers – EU, Nato, Russia – are again making new alliances.

Kosovo status still administrative mess

Police from the European Union law and justice mission in Kosovo (EULEX) have set up two customs control points in Serb dominated north Kosovo. Customs is again in place after one year when angry Serbs burnt down and pushed to nearby river the border posts in reaction to the Albanian majority’s declaration of independence from Serbia. Same time United Nations’ mission (UNMIK), EULEX and International Community Office (ICO) are twisting arms who will start talks on the realization of the six-point plan drafted by the UN. Separatist province’s local politicians are again bystanders only struggling between themselves about illusory administration of disputed puppet state.

With Albanian authorities having little control in Serb-inhabited areas that back onto Serbia proper, no efforts at rebuilding were made until this weekend. Kosovo has said it has lost millions in customs taxes in that period, as goods from Serbia entered freely and without any sort of control in these two points. EULEX spokesman Karin Limdal told Balkan Insight that while control have started, this doesn’t mean that the northern customs points are functioning normally, as EULEX only registered the goods, not asking people to pay customs tax. (Source BalkanInsight.com February 2nd 2009).

Implementing six-point-plan

Foreign Minister of Serbia Vuk Jeremić who has invited UNMIK chief Zannier to Belgrade in order to start talks on the realization of the six-point plan. Under the plan, the Kosovo Serbs will be granted broader autonomy in the areas of justice, police and customs. UNMIK spokesman Alexander Ivanko said on Sunday in Priština that before these talks begin, UNMIK must define its role in the dialogue, since authority in the three fields of discussion—courts, police and customs—have already been transferred to EULEX who’s field officers btw were twirling their thumbs over half an year while waiting permission even to go north Kosovo. “The UN and UNMIK will have a role in these talks, but it must be defined what kind of role it will have exactly, because the authority in the three main fields has been transferred to EULEX,” Ivanko told Radio Free Europe. (Source Serbianna February 2nd 2009).

More about six-point-plan in my article “UN adopts 6-point-plan for Kosovo – bye bye independence experiment”.

CEFTA

Kosovo’s local financial authorities have also other problem than non payment of custom taxes because Serbia and Bosnia are both blocking the import and transit of goods stamped with the seal of the Kosovo Customs authority, insisting that UNMIK and not Pristina should represent Kosovo in regional and international affairs, including the regional CETFA free trade agreement. Kosovo authorities have said the blockade is unacceptable because Serbia, Bosnia and Kosovo all signed the CEFTA agreement, which stipulates the free movement of goods and services throughout the Balkans. However the agreement is signed by UNMIK on behalf of Pristina. Since their declaration of independence, Kosovo Albanian want to denigrate UNMIK’s role and insist to be the sole representatives of „the Republic of Kosovo”, while Serbs imperatively stick to UNSC Resolution 1244, which stipulates that Kosovo can only be represented by UNMIK . (Source KosovoComrpomise January 31st 2009)

Many players in small sandbox

Besides UN/UNMIK and EU/EULEX there is also European Union High Representative in Kosovo Pieter Feith who simultaneously leads International Community Office wondering his role with coming talks. Same time Nato-troops (KFOR) tries to keep ethnic tensions moderate, OSCE do not know its role nor length of its mission’s mandate in Kosovo, EU delegation office, few influential foreign liaison representatives an of course sc. Kosovo government which does not recognize the whole six-point-plan and thinks that Kosovo institutions have no obligation to respect it. (Source Serbianna February 2nd 2009).

It shows amazing creativity to establish this kind organizational nightmare in one tiny province and more amazing is that after nearly nine years of international administration and capacity building and squandered billions of Euros both the administration and the situation on the ground are beneath all criticism.

Some aspects of freedom in Balkans here and spending Kosovo’s Aid money here

€ 2.4 bn propaganda

This post was first published in TH!NK ABOUT IT site 1st February 2009.

EU taxpayers are paying over 2,410 million (€ 2.4 bn) Euros to receive EU propaganda of EU bureaucracy. This amazing figure can be found from recently published study “The hard sell: EU communication policy and the campaign for hearts and minds” (December 2008) made by UK-based think tank Open Europe.

Open Europe is an independent, non-party political think tank which contributes bold new thinking to the debate about the direction of the European Union. Open Europe believes that the EU must now embrace radical reform based on economic liberalization, a looser and more flexible structure, and greater transparency and accountability if it is to overcome these challenges, and succeed in the twenty first century. (More about Open Europe here)

The calculation

The very well detailed and quoted new study with its 151 pages has concluded that total EU’s total propaganda spend amounts to more than € 2,410,231,282 per year. Alarming is that this €2.4bn estimate of EU propaganda spending is very conservative, calculated using only those budget lines which explicitly indicate their use. The study claims that “Indeed much of the funding that goes on propaganda is hidden deep inside the EU budget, under headings which do not suggest from their titles or descriptions that this is how the money was spend.”

(The full study can be found from here)

How the propaganda was made

The study has divided the money spending (or squandering if you like) into four chapters which are telling how the propaganda was – and still is – made:

• “Communicating Europe”: The EU’s biased information campaign
• Funding the cheerleaders: Paying NGOs, think-tanks and lobby groups topromote the EU
• Buying loyalty: Promoting European citizenship and a common European culture to engender support for the EU
• Investing in the long-term: Targeting young people

My conclusions

As said before, the study “EU communication policy and the campaign for hearts and minds” is well detailed with well-grounded arguments. However must disagree that EU funding itself creates EU propaganda. For example the study mentioned that e.g. cafebabel organization gets support from EU. I am one blogging under that platform and my writings have been quite euro-skeptical, I have e.g. claimed EU covering its own weaknesses by blaming member states, proposed to EU wannabees to seek also other alternatives, accused EU missions and its external policy about short-sighted and disastrous etc. – probably not what they want hear in Brussels.

My point is that even EU facilitates organizations, groups or media it can not know if these are telling their side of the story.

View my page on TH!NK ABOUT IT