INSS Strategic Analysis for Israel 2023

The Institute for National Security Studies launches and engages in innovative, relevant, high-quality research that shapes the public discourse of issues on Israel’s national security agenda, and provides policy analysis and recommendations to decision makers, public leaders, and the strategic community, both in Israel and abroad. As part of its mission, it is committed to encourage new ways of thinking and expand the traditional contours of establishment analysis.

In a reaction to the 1973 Yom Kippur War, Tel Aviv University decided to establish a Center for Security Studies. A number of individuals within and outside the University community posited that one possible reason for Israel’s having been caught by surprise on October 6, 1973 was that no institution outside the Israeli establishment had assumed the responsibility of evaluating the premises on which government policy was based – premises that also guided the planning and conduct of Israel’s defense establishment. Had such a research institute existed, it might have questioned the assumptions leading to the intelligence assessment that war was unlikely.

Now INSS has published its newest Strategic Analysis for Israel 2023 .

According INSS,as we look back at 2022 we can clearly discern the acceleration of key global and internal trends that pose serious challenges to Israel’s national security and call for a revision of existing policies. Among those processes that took a sharp turn, three stand out: 

  • The heightened competition between China and the United States, which has turned into an overt conflict between the two great powers, thus becoming the key factor shaping the global geopolitical arena. 
  • Russia’s belligerence toward Ukraine, which has simmered since Russia annexed the Crimean Peninsula in 2014, turned into a full-scale war a year ago, and upended in one stroke the Pax Europaea that had reigned in the continent since the end of World War II. 
  • Iran’s relentless pursuit of military nuclear capabilities, which advanced to the point of Iran becoming a de facto nuclear threshold state, without the restraints of the JCPOA agreement, and without a credible military deterrent from the United States.

The main conclusions that arise from our Strategic Analysis for Israel 2023 are:

  • The criticality of maintaining and strengthening relations with the United States as an overall organizing principle in shaping Israel’s foreign and security policy, particularly with regard to the Iranian threat. 
  • The imperative to recognize the dangerous consequences of divisive trends within Israel and the trends vis-à-vis the Palestinians, and hence the urgent need to seek novel strategies. 

As the whole assessment includes 96 pages here below are only abstracts/infographics from main chapters:

Source: INSS

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